The Monty Hall Problem

[deckardcanine]

The Monty Hall problem is named for a host
Of the game show called Let’s Make a Deal.
A player picked one of three doors, and Hall opened
Another, a goat to reveal.

The player could then choose to open that first door
Or switch to the other still shut.
One door hid Goat 2, and the other, a car
For a prize. If you go with your gut,

You might just assume the two options are equally
Likely to get you the car.
Statistician Steve Selvin asked Marilyn Mach
vos Savant if they actually are.

The magazine columnist’s answer at first
Was rejected by many a scholar.
With proofs by computers and humans, the number
Of naysayers got a lot smaller.

If Hall hadn’t already known where the car was,
The odds would be equal indeed,
But since he would start with a goat every time,
What he skipped was more apt to succeed.

This problem is called a veridical paradox,
Seeming absurd but quite true.
The Three Prisoners problem and Bertrand’s box paradox
Mirror the math of it too.